Betting Analysis
Texas Children's Houston Open picks 2025: Can Min Woo Lee bomb his way to victory?
While we couldn't quite go for three in a row at the Valspar Championship, the panel had another strong week in the top 10 prop market. An 8-1, a 4-1 and 3-1, all winners. Not bad, not bad.
Of course, nobody was on Viktor Hovland's victory, a tough pill to swallow considering the former phenom was as high as 80-1 in some spots pre-tourney. Perhaps we could avenge that this week at the Houston Open, though mega favorites Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will have something to say about that.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Memorial Park, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open:
Texas Children’s Houston Open picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Scottie Scheffler (+500, Bet365) — The chalk has come through in March Madness, and I think it’ll happen for Scheffler this week. He plays so well in Texas, and he’ll be motivated to get a W to end his 2025 drought ahead of Augusta.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Min Woo Lee (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Driver, chipping, and putting and hope to get lucky with the irons. This is the Min Woo path to success. Aussies have an excellent track record in Texas as well.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tony Finau (35-1, FanDuel) — Finau’s odds are lengthening because of some weak play recently, specifically with a poor showing at the Players. Finau, though, is a top three tee-to-green player over the last year among this field and has had great results at Memorial Park, including a win and a runner-up the last two years.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Aaron Rai (28-1, DraftKings) — Only five players have two or more top 10s at Memorial Park and Aaron Rai is one of them. Rai is an incredible long iron player who has just finished fourth (Mexico), 11th (API), and 14th (Players). In three starts at Houston, Aaron has not finished outside of the top 20. Rain won’t bother Rai either, he’ll use two gloves to grab that trophy on Sunday.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Min Woo Lee (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — This is a perfect venue for Min Woo to get his first PGA Tour victory. A driver-heavy course where short game is a requirement is right up his alley. The chef will dial up some of his short-game magic this week en route to a W.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Davis Thompon (35-1, FanDuel) — Thompson seemed to have found something at TPC Sawgrass, where he gained over six strokes tee-to-green and 3.1 with his putter en route to a top 10. That was his second top 15 in four starts, the previous one coming at Torrey Pines in the Genesis Invitational (13th), a demanding off-the-tee test. Memorial Park is much more forgiving off the tee, but Thompson will be able to wail away with the driver and the other parts of his game look sharp enough right now to feel good about his chances at win No. 2.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Davis Thompon (35-1, FanDuel) — We were on Davis Thompson for his breakthrough victory at the John Deere Classic, and Memorial Park is a perfect venue for the big hitting University of Georgia graduate to capture his second PGA Tour win. Thompson finished 21st last year at this event, gaining significantly off the tee and around the greens, which has proven to be an incredibly sustainable roadmap to success at Tom Doak’s over-seeded version of the Houston public gem.
Past results: We have another winner! Our anonymous swing coach picked Rory McIlroy at 12-1 to win the Players Championship, his first outright hit of the season. A week before that, Christopher Powers cashed his first outright of 2025, correctly picking Russell Henley to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational at 44-1. The panel now has three wins this year, the third belonging to Stephen Hennessey and Keith Stewart, who both hit on Ludvig Aberg (25-1) at the Genesis Invitational. Let’s keep it rolling at Innisbrook.
Texas Children’s Houston Open picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Jake Knapp (80-1, FanDuel) — I’m not sure how he’s a longshot, as he’s playing like a top-10 player in this field. He’s only a few rounds away from a sub-60 score, with two top-12s in a row and four top-25s before a MC last week, which must’ve put oddsmakers off the scent.
Mayo: Nicolai Hojgaard (100-1, BetMGM) — I feel like Nicolai may be a money pit for me. But he keeps flashing enough of the proper baseline skills to warrant going back at these long numbers. The Dane’s iron play and putting continue to impress while his driver keeps going all over the course. But that is OK at Memorial Park. Some fairways are almost double the width of Valspar and even a miss isn’t that damaging unless it’s in the worst spots. Hopefully it turns out more like Mexico when he sprayed it everywhere and it really made no difference.
Gdula: Mackenzie Hughes (90-1, FanDuel) — Hughes has had great form at Memorial Park (four made cuts and three top 20s), and he’s got an all-around game that should give him another good showing at a course that requires a bit of everything.
Stewart: Andrew Novak (90-1, Bet365) — Memorial Park requires incredible lag putting over four days. Andrew Novak is ranked third in the field for approach with his flat stick. A brute off the tee, Novak brings a 13th at the Genesis and a third at the Farmers to Houston; both contested at Torrey Pines. I love his ability to play “long golf.” Andrew is the type of player that will surprise some, but not us for his ability to get the ball in the hole in Houston.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alex Smalley (55-1, FanDuel) — I’m sure he’ll be one of the most popular bets this week, but I can’t not be on it. Smalley has raised his baseline by nearly three quarters of a stroke per round and didn’t back down in contention at The Players. This is a great chance for him at a ball-striker’s course if he keeps up his hot putting.
Powers, Golf Digest: Aldrich Potgieter (150-1, FanDuel) — Everyone couldn’t get enough of this guy after his Mexico Open runner-up, understandably so given how jaw-dropping some of his tee shots were. Now he gets a course that encourages BOMBS off the tee and nobody seems to be on him? I’ll bite. Even in missing his last three cuts, all of which came in Florida, he was still a positive OTT player in two of them, Bay Hill being the only exception. This is a wild number for a player who was a lucky bounce off a tree away from already having a tour victory at the age of 20.
Lack: Taylor Pendrith (45-1, FanDuel) — Taylor Pendrith is an ideal fit at Memorial Park given his power off the tee and long iron approach play, and we finally started to see him roll in putts at the Players. Pendrith gained 6.8 strokes putting at the Players Championship, his best putting performance of the season, and he has now gained over a stroke on approach in three straight starts as well. It’s time for the Canadian to add another victory in Texas to his resume.
Texas Children’s Houston Open picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Rory McIlroy (+650, FanDuel) — All eyes are on Augusta for him—as I can see him trying to tinker with some of that new equipment he benched before The Players. This will be a great venue for him to try some different wedge grinds and other combos ahead of the big show.
Mayo: J.J. Spaun (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Yes, his one win came in Texas but being the third favorite in the field just isn’t right when there are about 10 better players behind him on the odds board.
Gdula: Wyndham Clark (33-1, FanDuel) — Clark is working his way back from a neck injury and has been struggling with his irons for a long time now, ranking 75th in this field over the last 50 rounds in SG/approach
Stewart: Tony Finau (28-1, Bet365) — Something is going on with Tony Finau. Whether it is personal or physical, Finau has NOT made it to make the weekend in every full field event he has played this year. Tony looked really off at the Players and even though this venue has been a great landing spot, something tells me it will be another tough week getting inside the 36-hole cut with 156 players in the field.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jason Day (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — J-Day’s been playing better, but he still ranks 81st in my model this week: He’s 111th in SG/off the tee and 93rd in SG/approach over the past 36 rounds, per RickRunGood.com.
Powers, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (33-1, FanDuel) — I had been betting Wyndham rather consistently at some crazy prices in Florida. Then he pulls out of the Players with a supposed injury and he’s down to 33-1? Can’t touch that.
Lack: J.J. Spaun (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — This feels an obvious sell high spot for J.J. Spaun, who is coming off a playoff loss at the Players Championship. Spaun now suddenly finds himself as one of the top three players on the odds board, unfamiliar territory for the one-time PGA Tour winner. While TPC Sawgrass was a golf course that heavily accentuated accuracy off the tee and approach play, Memorial Park is far more about power off the tee and short game. Neither are tremendous strengths for Spaun.
Texas Children’s Houston Open picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Sungjae Im (-139) over Jacob Bridgeman (Bet365) — Bridgeman is coming off some great play, but I trust Sungjae’s longer-term form on a course that mandates strong ball-striking, I think you’re getting a discount on Sungjae here.
Mayo: Rory McIlroy (+125) over Scottie Scheffler (Coolbet) — Feels like a coin toss right now between the two and I’m getting 25 cents extra for Rory.
Gdula: Alex Smalley (-115) over Thomas Detry (FanDuel) — Smalley is better in all three tee-to-green areas than Detry over the last six months, and while Detry is the better putter, it’s not enough to make up the gap in recent form.
Stewart: Jacob Bridgeman (+100) over Sungjae Im (Bet365) — Jacob Bridgeman is favored in this matchup for two reasons. Jacob’s third place in Tampa was fueled by an epic putter and excellent par 3 play. The only player to finish in the top three twice in Florida, Bridgeman is playing great. You need a serious approach game to conquer Memorial Park and Sungjae Im has been awful with his irons. Im has lost strokes on approach in six of his last eight starts dating all the way back to the American Express in January.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alex Smalley (-118) over Sahith Theegala (BetMGM) — Smalley’s playing significantly better golf than Theegala at the moment—gaining nearly a stroke more per round than Theegala, making this an auto-play for me.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jake Knapp (+100) over Kurt Kitayama (DraftKings) — Classic case of the wrong guy being favored here. While Knapp did just miss the cut at Valspar, he had just been on a run of four consecutive top 25s. Kitayama, meanwhile, continues to disappoint, missing four of his last six cuts.
Lack: Davis Thompson (-120) over Jason Day (DraftKings) — This is an easy one, as Davis Thompson is my pick to win, and I still have considerable concerns about Jason Day’s health, who is coming off a last-minute withdrawal at the Players Championship. Even if Day is fully recovered, his off the tee and around the green numbers still fall behind Thompson by a robust margin.
Matchup Results from the Valspar Championship: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Glover (-110) over T. Kim); Lack: 1 for 1 (Schauffele (-140) over Burns); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Jaeger (-120) over R. Hojgaard); Swing coach: PUSH (Conners (-120) over Lowry); Powers: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 8-3-1 (up 4.48 units); Powers: 8-4-0 (up 3.97 units); Swing coach: 5-2-2 (up 2.57 units); Lack: 6-6-0 (down 0.79 units); Gdula: 5-6-1 (down 1.69 units); Stewart: 5-7-0 (down 2.02 units); Mayo: 4-8-0 (down 3.99 units)
Texas Children’s Houston Open picks 2025: Top 10s
Swing coach: Harris English (+700, FanDuel) — Harris plays his best golf on long, difficult courses, and he’s been playing great golf with the win at Torrey and putting in some great work with Justin Parsons.
Mayo: Steven Fisk (+1200, FanDuel) — If you watched him putt in Puerto Rico down the stretch you may have shell shock but it’s been a very good run despite that missed chance. Add Fisk’s fourth at the Puerto Rico Open to his T-28 at Valspar and T-17 in Mexico and you some shockingly good form. Especially at a course that’s grip and rip off the tee.
Gdula: Taylor Pendrith (+400, FanDuel) — Pendrith is the third-best ball-striker in this field over the last 50 rounds, per datagolf, trailing just Scottie Sheffler and Rory McIlroy. His short game is a bit iffy, but his putting splits from within 15 feet suggest better days ahead on the greens.
Stewart: J.J. Spaun (+375, Bet365) — I’m sure you know who J.J. Spaun is now. The tee-to-green king of 2025 just lost in a playoff to Rory McIlroy at Sawgrass. Even with Rory and Scottie in the field, Spaun is ranked first in SG/approach this week. In two starts at Memorial Park, J.J. has gained with the putter. No small task considering these greens, I love Spaun’s chances with 10 places and ton of momentum.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Kevin Yu (+650, FanDuel) — Yu played great last week at the Valspar (finished 12th) playing alongside Justin Thomas, and it’s not the first time he excelled on a ball-striking-heavy course, finishing 17th at the signature event at Torrey Pines. He’s one of the longest hitters in this field and is a top-30 approach player over the past 36 rounds, per RickRunGood.com.
Powers, Golf Digest: Isaiah Salinda (+1200, FanDuel) — Let’s see if we can clean my ugly top 10 record in one shot here. I actually do like this bet, too. Like my longshot pick to win, Potgieter, Salinda popped off at another driver-heavy course in Mexico, posting a third-place finish. He even flashed a bit at Sawgrass early before fading on the weekend. The former Standford standout seems like a potential star in the making, though he’ll need to work on that approach play first.
Lack: Keith Mitchell (+550, DraftKings) — Keith Mitchell certainly has the power and long iron play to yield a significant advantage at a soft Memorial Park this week. Mitchell is coming off a great approach week at the Valspar where he gained 4.1 strokes on approach, and he even held the lead on Thursday. Our on-course reporting at ISN had a very positive read on Keith Mitchell from the practice rounds, and I’m expecting a strong performance.
Top-10 results from the Valspar Championship: Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Billy Horschel +800); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Lucas Glover +400); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Corey Conners +360); Everybody else 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Swing coach: 4 for 9 (up 15.8 units); Lack: 5 for 12 (up 9 units); Gdula: 5 for 12 (up 9 units); Mayo: 2 for 12 (up 4.33 units); Stewart: 4 for 12 (up 0.85 units); Hennessey: 1 for 12 (down 7.4 units); Powers: 0 for 12 (down 12 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports