Fantasy Advice
Valspar Championship DFS picks 2025: The stat that points to a breakthrough for Tommy Fleetwood
After an exciting Monday finish at the Players Championship, the PGA Tour heads to Tampa for the final stop on the PGA Tour’s Florida swing, the Valspar Championship. While it may not possess the history or name brand recognition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational or Players, the Valspar is an under-appreciated event on an extremely strong golf course, and it generally attracts a respectable field. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook annually plays as one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour, featuring a driving accuracy percentage and a greens in regulation percentage both south of 60 percent. Players will need a strong combination of accuracy off the tee, middle to long iron approach play, and scrambling ability to keep pace.
Coming off a disappointing Players performance, Xander Schauffele headlines the field this week, and he will be joined by Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Will Zalatoris, Tom Kim and two-time Valspar Championship winner, Sam Burns. This may be our final look at many of these pedigree players before the Masters, and their last opportunity to dial in their game before the season’s first major championship.
$10,000 range
Play: Tommy Fleetwood, $10,300
Tommy Fleetwood is playing some of the best golf of his entire career, and he continues to hit his irons at an elite level. The Englishman gained over five strokes on approach last week at TPC Sawgrass, and he has now gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in 10 straight starts, dating back to 2024. I’m not sure if he’ll be the last man standing on Sunday, but he certainly possesses the highest floor in this field right now.
Fade: Justin Thomas, $10,800
David Cannon
The highs have also been high with Justin Thomas, but as we witnessed last week at the Players, we are also subject to the lows. Thomas was all over the place at TPC Sawgrass, losing nine strokes ball-striking in round one, before tying the course record on Friday. Overall, his driver and putter remain too inconsistent to trust at this price tag.
$9,000 range
Play: Corey Conners, $9,600
Corey Conners was featured in this column last week as a near perfect fit for TPC Sawgrass, and I feel similarly about Innisbrook, another course that emphasizes accuracy off the tee and overall approach play. While we can always rely on Conners’ consistent ball-striking, his improvement on the greens is also notable, as the Canadian has gained over 2.8 strokes putting in three straight starts.
Fade: Sam Burns, $9,800
As much as I am cognizant of Sam Burns’ remarkable course history at Innisbrook, which includes back-to-back victories in 2022 and 2023, something is completely off at the moment with his irons. Burns has now lost strokes on approach in seven out of his last eight starts, and it appears to be getting worse before it gets better. Burns lost 4.5 strokes on approach last week at the Players, and I’m not sure the comfortable confines of Innisbrook can fix an issue in such disrepair.
$8,000 range
Play: Lucas Glover, $8,800
Lucas Glover continues to play some excellent golf this season, and his third-place finish at the Players saw the former U.S. Open champion gain over two strokes in all four major categories. Now he returns to another Southeastern Bermuda course that emphasizes accuracy off the tee and middle to long iron approach, and I see no reason to believe that he won’t continue his strong play.
Fade: Viktor Hovland, $8,400
Jared C. Tilton
Another week, another tempting Viktor Hovland opportunity that results in disappointment. Hovland has now missed four of his five cuts on the season, and I simply do not like him at Innisbrook, one of the most challenging tee-to-green courses on tour, where Hovland will need to rely significantly on his short game, as the get-right spot.
$7,000 range
Play: Bud Cauley, $7,600
Bud Cauley is coming off a sixth-place finish at the Players where he gained strokes in all four major categories, including over three strokes off the tee and six strokes putting. His mix of accuracy off the tee and spike putting is a a perfect fit for Innisbrook, and I’m expecting another high finish.
Fade: Ben Griffin, $7,900
In a passionate pursuit to play in the Masters, Ben Griffin has now played every single week since the Sony Open. While I have a lot of admiration for this effort, Griffin is experiencing diminishing returns, now losing strokes in both ball-striking categories in back-to-back starts. I’ll be fading until Griffin takes a week off.
Flier: Rico Hoey, $7,000
Very quietly, Rico Hoey lead the field in strokes-gained/off-the-tee at the Players Championship, and he also gained 4.7 strokes on approach. Of course, with this level of ball-striking, there needs to be a catch if Hoey is only seven thousand dollars. Just don’t look at his putting stats.
$6,000 range
Play: Danny Walker, $6,900
Jared C. Tilton
I have no reason to believe that Danny Walker can’t keep his foot on the gas and produce another high finish at the Valspar. Walker is coming off a 6th-place finish at the Players Championship where he ranked second in SG/OTT. Walker’s combination of distance and accuracy will certainly come in handy this week on the difficult tee-to-green test of Innisbrook.