Betting Analysis
Valspar Championship picks 2025: Can we go for three in a row?
Another week, another winner for the Golf Digest expert panel. Sure, the haters will say Rory McIlroy was an easy pick by our anonymous swing coach, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Yes, McIlroy was the second favorite, but the uncertainty with his equipment and the fact TPC Sawgrass is a very difficult venue to win once at, let alone twice, made it a much more impressive hit than it seemed.
Now we go for three in a row at Innisbrook, the final stop on the Florida Swing, which will pose a similar challenge for a surprisingly strong field.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Innisbrook Resort, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Valspar Championship:
Valspar Championship picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Sam Burns (30-1, Bet365) — You’re getting value on Burns based off his poor play recently, but this is the perfect get-right spot for the back-to-back winner in 2021 and 2022. He just loves Bermudagrass, which will help him around these greens. And despite a few poor ball-striking displays, this place has always fit his eye off the tee—so I think it’s worth taking a shot on him in this spot.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Michael Kim (33-1, BetMGM) — If not now, when? Kim has the better weather draw and enters second the field tee-to-green over the past 24 rounds. He’s already sniffed a win in Florida twice, against a slightly weaker field this week, it’s his time.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Tommy Fleetwood (11-1, FanDuel) — I liked Fleetwood a good bit before the tee times emerged, and he’s one of the few names I loved that drew an early/late tee time. Weather really could dictate this this week. Fleetwood has two top-16 results at Copperhead in two career starts.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Alex Smalley (70-1, FanDuel) — Alex Smalley has six top-21 results in seven starts this year. Smalley has gained an average of five strokes total on the field across the last five events. Fourteenth at the Players, Alex gained nine strokes tee-to-green. The Duke grad has really put together a well-rounded skill set and now ready for any test. Ten straight starts with a positive T2G gain, Smalley can come up big on a course where scoring from short range is a premium point of emphasis.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Will Zalatoris (45-1, FanDuel) — Willy Z’s irons were hot last week, gaining over a stroke per round at TPC Sawgrass. Another encouraging sign? He gained nearly a stroke per round on the greens. We just need the off-the-tee play to be more like peak Willy Z, and if we get that, he will threaten for another PGA Tour victory. The price is right.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Will Zalatoris (45-1, FanDuel) — Been going back and forth on whether to call off the dogs on this Willy Z bet since it seems like a tornado is coming to Palm Harbor on Thursday afternoon (Zalatoris is in the PM/AM wave). But screw it, I watched Zalatoris golf his damn ball last Saturday in heavy winds at the Players Championship, and if not for a brutal mental error on 14 that led to a snowman, I do think he would have challenged Rory McIlroy to the very end the way he was hitting it. All we need from him Thursday is a grindy one, two or three under round and this 45-1 number will be looking great in retrospect. He’s now gained over four strokes with his irons on consecutive weeks. We are so close to being all the way back.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Tom Kim (28-1, Bet365) — Tom Kim lead the field in approach play last week at the Players Championship, gaining nearly 10 strokes with his irons at TPC Sawgrass. Innisbrook is a similar, positional, club down golf course with smaller greens that will emphasize precision ball-striking. I expect Kim’s run of strong play to continue.
Past results: We have another winner! Our anonymous swing coach picked Rory McIlroy at 12-1 to win the Players Championship, his first outright hit of the season. A week before that, Christopher Powers cashed his first outright of 2025, correctly picking Russell Henley to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational at 44-1. The panel now has three wins this year, the third belonging to Stephen Hennessey and Keith Stewart, who both hit on Ludvig Aberg (25-1) at the Genesis Invitational. Let’s keep it rolling at Innisbrook.
Valspar Championship picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Jordan Spieth (60-1, FanDuel) — I’m amazed at these odds. Spieth has flashed signs that he’s back to his elite form—he just needs to eliminate the big errors. At a familiar venue where he’s won before and had more good finishes, I’m ready to take a shot at this value.
Mayo: Kevin Yu (125-1, Bet365) — There’s been a direct correlation between success at Sanderson Farms and Valspar over the years: Sam Burns and Peter Malnati are two winners of both events. So let’s ride with long shot Kevin Yu who hoisted the Rooster trophy during the swing season, has the preferred weather wave, and enters gaining with his irons in eight straight events to open 2025.
Gdula: Jacob Bridgeman (55-1, FanDuel) — Bridgeman got the good side of the wave, and he has been striping the irons and putting well. He was T-2 at Cognizant and T-15 at API before a T-50 at the Players. If the irons start to stick, then Bridgeman’s ceiling becomes immense with how good his putting is.
Stewart: Jake Knapp (90-1, FanDuel) — We jumped on the Jake Knapp train back in Scottsdale. Since then, Knapp has finished 17th-25th-sixth-12th. Sixth and twelfth in Florida, Jake’s success has stemmed from excellent iron play and putting —Two traits we need this week to win the Valspar. As a tour winner (Mexico Open), I don’t worry about Knapp’s ability to close on Sunday. He’s ranked op 10 in the field for his flatstick and iron game, so let the shaft loose and let’s hit this longshot.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (70-1, FanDuel) — It’s four weeks in a row for the 45-year-old, which gives me a little pause, but if you’re giving me these odds, I have no choice but to take them. He was great across the board last week, and he comes to a spot where he’s played 19 times (!) in his career, so he doesn’t need a ton of prep work before Thursday. It was a similar spot for him last year off four starts, and he finished 11th, and he’s playing significantly better than he was this time last year.
Powers, Golf Digest: Davis Riley (170-1, FanDuel) — Riley seems much closer to putting it all together than this number would suggest, and he gets the AM/PM wave this week. Nobody is more live to be the first-round leader, but we’re taking a much deeper shot with this one. The two-time PGA Tour winner has now gained strokes with his irons in three straight starts, and he has a runner-up finish here to Sam Burns (2022). Perhaps we can catch a week like Colonial last year where he just absolutely cooks with his irons and runs away with it (we can dream).
Lack: Rico Hoey (100-1, BetMGM) — Rico Hoey quietly lead the field last week at the Players Championship in strokes-gained/off-the-tee, and he also gained 4.5 strokes on approach. Of course, the putter was a disaster, but this is baked into the exorbitant betting number. You’ll be hard pressed to find a player with greater ball-striking upside than Hoey in this price range.
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Valspar Championship picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Xander Schauffele (12-1, DraftKings) — I’ll continue to fade Xander until he shows us something after his injury. I haven’t seen it yet. I’m sure Chris Como is working on getting Xander ready for Augusta, not necessarily for the Valspar. This is a tough spot to find your game, so let’s wait until a couple weeks from now.
Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (11-1, FanDuel) — The betting favorite in the good weather wave, what could go wrong? It’s Tommy Fleetwood being asked to win a PGA event.
Gdula: Justin Thomas (20-1, FanDuel) — Playing the wave split angle, Thomas is the favorite who could get wiped out the most with his afternoon start on Thursday. Thomas has also struggled on these greens, historically.
Stewart: Sam Burns (20-1, DraftKings) — Whoa… Sam Burns is on a bad run of ball-striking. Known for his iron play and putting, Burns has won this event twice (2021, ’22). Sam’s struggles recently are very real as he lost 10 strokes on approach at API, and four more at the Players. Valspar is a varied accuracy test with your iron game. Five par 3s, and nine tough par 4s measure precise accuracy on approach. While Burns battles with his ball-striking, I’ll take a break from the Valspar veteran.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (12-1, DraftKings) — The price is way too short. I’ll take our anonymous coach’s lead here and figure that he has his sights on Augusta, not the Valspar.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns (20-1, DraftKings) — Those approach numbers are legitimately startling. Cannot touch him right now.
Lack: Sam Burns (20-1, DraftKings) — As exciting as the course history is, Sam Burns is simply not the player that he was in 2022 or 2023 when he won back-to-back Valspar Championships. He has now lost strokes on approach in seven out of his last eight starts, and it appears to be getting worse before it gets better. Burns has now lost a whopping 14 strokes on approach over his last six rounds. He is not a playable option at the price tag.
Valspar Championship picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Corey Conners (-120) over Shane Lowry (Bet365) — I love how Corey Conners is striking the ball right now—leading to back-to-back top-10 finishes. It’s the same story this week—being in the fairway and striping his irons will be a pathway toward the top of the leader board. The Canadian has been more reliable than Lowry in Florida.
Mayo: Sam Burns (+120) over Sepp Straka (Coolbet) — Clearly Straka deserves to the fav but not by this big a margin over the two-time Valspar winner.
Gdula: Stephan Jaeger (-120) over Rasmus Hojgaard (FanDuel) — Jaeger has been about a third of a shot per round better than Hojgaard over the last six months and is a better putter.
Stewart: Luke Clanton (-125) over Byeong Hun An (Bet365) — Byeong Hun An has experienced a roller coaster performance ride in 2025. The putter and his iron game are the cause of his inconsistency. An has lost strokes with the flatstick and on approach in seven of his last eight starts. Two key traits contenders will need this week. Luke Clanton is still in college and has earned his tour card. Clanton has six top 20s in 12 professional starts. The FSU Seminole feels comfortable in the Sunshine State and will take home this 72-hole tourney matchup.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (-110) over Tom Kim (BetMGM) — Kim’s irons were dangerously hot last week at TPC Sawgrass, but the putter was abysmal for a third straight week. Kim’s also been inconsistent off the tee recently, ranking toward the middle of the field in Good Drive Percentage—and Glover thrives in that arena. The youngster is also making his first start at Innisbrook, whereas Glover has a ton of experience at a venue that should suit him well.
Powers, Golf Digest: Will Zalatoris (+100) over Shane Lowry (DraftKings) — Obviously very high on Zalatoris, who seems close to exploding. Lowry had another great week on approach, though. I expect a tight matchup here, especially considering they are both going out Thursday afternoon. Could come down to who goes lower on that day.
Lack: Xander Schauffele (-140) over Sam Burns (DraftKings) — In this matchup, we are dealing with two players with considerable questions surrounding their recent form. In his second start back from a rib injury, Schauffele fired rounds of 77 and 81 over the weekend at the Players Championship. Burns, on the other hand, missed another cut, losing over four strokes on approach in the process. I still trust Schauffele’s approach play far more than Burns, who appears to be lost in the most important area in golf.
Matchup Results from the Players Championship: Powers: 1 for 1 (Griffin (-110) over Ghim); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (S.W. Kim (-120) over Finau); Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Thomas (-120) over Schauffele); Stewart: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 8-3-0 (up 4.97 units); Hennessey: 7-3-1 (up 3.57 units); Swing coach: 5-2-1 (up 2.57 units); Stewart: 5-6-0 (down 1.02 units); Lack: 5-6-0 (down 1.5 units); Gdula: 4-6-1 (down 2.52 units); Mayo: 4-7-0 (down 2.99 units)
Valspar Championship picks 2025: Top 10s
Swing coach: Billy Horschel (+800, Bet365) — Horschel’s been solid since the fall, and though he wasn’t great on the weekend last week, he was at home, which means he’ll be more comfortable this week than some others. The Florida boy is such a solid ball-striker and can hit all the shots required at Innisbrook. I expect him to play great here.
Mayo: Sam Ryder (+1100, FanDuel) — Two of Ryder’s best three career putting performances have come that this course the past two years (+10.6 in ’24/+8.1 in ’23). He hasn’t done much with it, but he enters with very solid iron form in 2025 and actually figured out his driver at Sawgrass en route to a T-14. He’s the long shot I like at Valspar.
Gdula: Corey Conners (+360, FanDuel) — Conners could get obliterated by the weather, but in the event the split isn’t massive, I don’t want to be out entirely. Conners’ tee-to-green game is exactly what we should be looking for at Copperhead.
Stewart: Lucas Glover (+450, FanDuel) — This is Lucas Glover’s 20th Valspar start, the most of anyone in the field. Glover has navigated the cut 15 times, given us seven top 25 results, and last year Lucas finished T-11. Glover has gained an average of 2.3 strokes per start over that career Valspar resume. The Copperhead Course works for Glover because he’s a very good long iron player and par-3 scorer. He simply keeps the ball in play and although that may not win, he can certainly finish inside that top 10 much like he did last week at Sawgrass (T-3).
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alex Smalley (+600, FanDuel) — I’d expect Smalley to keep up the stellar ball-striking at a venue that demands it. This should be a great spot for him.
Powers, Golf Digest: Danny Walker (+700, FanDuel) — Walker is in house money mode after being the last man in the Players field. Was very impressed by his sixth-place finish, where he gained over 11 strokes tee-to-green in his first appearance at Sawgrass. That bodes well for Innisbrook, which asks some similar questions off the tee and into the greens. Stay hot, Danny boy.
Lack: Tommy Fleetwood (+110, DraftKings) — Tommy Fleetwood is bar none playing some of the best golf of his career, and he continues to stripe his irons at an elite level. Dating back to last year, the Englishman has gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in 10 straight starts, and he is now returning to a golf course that he has already recorded a 16th and a third at in both of his two appearances.
Top-10 results from the Players Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (Collin Morikawa +160); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Collin Morikawa +160); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Lack: 5 for 11 (up 10 units); Swing coach: 3 for 8 (up 7.8 units); Gdula: 4 for 11 (up 5.4 units); Mayo: 2 for 11 (up 5.33 units); Stewart: 3 for 11 (down 3.15 units); Hennessey: 1 for 11 (down 6.4 units); Powers: 0 for 11 (down 11 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports